Working Papers

“Occupational Job Ladders Within and Between Firms” (2022 update)

eforsythe Working Papers

Abstract:

I present four facts about occupational mobility: (1) most movements occur within fi rms, (2) downward moves are frequent, (3) wage growth reflects the direction and distance of mobility, and (4) relative occupational wages before mobility predict the direction of mobility, except for non-displaced movers between fi rms. I show these facts are consistent with models of vertical sorting. I show that non-displaced movements between fi rms obscure the positive selection of upward occupational movers, likely reflecting moves up a firm-wage job ladder. Displaced workers show similar pre-displacement selection to internal movers, with pre-displacement occupational wage rank predicting the direction of occupational mobility.

Understanding Disparities in Unemployment Insurance Recipiency (with Hesong Yang)

eforsythe COVID-19, Working Papers

Report prepared for the Department of Labor Chief Evaluation Office Summer Data Challenge on Equity and Underserved Communities

Blog from DOL: https://blog.dol.gov/2022/02/10/were-using-data-to-better-understand-our-work-and-create-more-equitable-programs-and-policies

https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OASP/evaluation/pdf/University%20of%20Illinois%20-%20Final%20SDC%20Paper.pdf

http://publish.illinois.edu/elizaforsythe/files/2022/04/ForsytheYang_DOL.pdf

Abstract: Using data from before and during the Covid-19 pandemic, we show that the expansion of benefi ts under the CARES Act only modestly increased self-reported UI recipiency among UI eligible workers, from 27% in 2018 to 36% in 2020/2021. We find that the same demographic groups that historically are less likely to report receiving benefi ts (less educated, younger, and racial and ethnic minorities) continued to be less likely to receive benefi ts during the pandemic. In addition we fi nd non-heterosexual workers are also substantially less likely to report receiving benefi ts. The overarching reason for these disparities is di fferences in beliefs about eligibility, resulting in likely-eligible workers not applying for benefi ts. We show that union members and individuals who live in states with historically higher recipiency rates are less likely to be misinformed about eligibility, suggesting a role for policy and informational interventions to improve recipiency rates.