Working Papers

“The Effect of Minimum Wage Policies on the Wage and Occupational Structure of Establishments” (forthcoming Journal of Labor Economics 2023)

eforsythe Publications, Working Papers

Abstract:

Using establishment-level panel data from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program, I estimate the eff ect of minimum wage increases implemented by 10 states in 2014 and 2015. I show that minimum wage increases lead to wage spillovers within establishments. I find little evidence that minimum wage increases induce establishments to reorganize their occupational mix. Finally, I fi nd that minimum wage increases propagate up the management hierarchy, leading to increased wages for supervisors. Nonetheless, I fi nd overall wage inequality decreases within establishments
after minimum wage increases.

pre-publication version: https://elizaforsythe.web.illinois.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Effect_of_Minimum_Wage_on_Establishments.pdf

“Occupational Job Ladders Within and Between Firms” (2022 update)

eforsythe Working Papers

Abstract:

I present four facts about occupational mobility: (1) most movements occur within fi rms, (2) downward moves are frequent, (3) wage growth reflects the direction and distance of mobility, and (4) relative occupational wages before mobility predict the direction of mobility, except for non-displaced movers between fi rms. I show these facts are consistent with models of vertical sorting. I show that non-displaced movements between fi rms obscure the positive selection of upward occupational movers, likely reflecting moves up a firm-wage job ladder. Displaced workers show similar pre-displacement selection to internal movers, with pre-displacement occupational wage rank predicting the direction of occupational mobility.

Understanding Disparities in Unemployment Insurance Recipiency (with Hesong Yang)

eforsythe COVID-19, Working Papers

Report prepared for the Department of Labor Chief Evaluation Office Summer Data Challenge on Equity and Underserved Communities

Blog from DOL: https://blog.dol.gov/2022/02/10/were-using-data-to-better-understand-our-work-and-create-more-equitable-programs-and-policies

https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OASP/evaluation/pdf/University%20of%20Illinois%20-%20Final%20SDC%20Paper.pdf

http://publish.illinois.edu/elizaforsythe/files/2022/04/ForsytheYang_DOL.pdf

Abstract: Using data from before and during the Covid-19 pandemic, we show that the expansion of benefi ts under the CARES Act only modestly increased self-reported UI recipiency among UI eligible workers, from 27% in 2018 to 36% in 2020/2021. We find that the same demographic groups that historically are less likely to report receiving benefi ts (less educated, younger, and racial and ethnic minorities) continued to be less likely to receive benefi ts during the pandemic. In addition we fi nd non-heterosexual workers are also substantially less likely to report receiving benefi ts. The overarching reason for these disparities is di fferences in beliefs about eligibility, resulting in likely-eligible workers not applying for benefi ts. We show that union members and individuals who live in states with historically higher recipiency rates are less likely to be misinformed about eligibility, suggesting a role for policy and informational interventions to improve recipiency rates.

“Computerization of White Collar Jobs” (with Marcus Dillender), 2022

eforsythe Working Papers

Abstract: We investigate the impact of computerization of white-collar jobs on wages and employment. Using online job postings from 2007 and 2010–2016 for office and administrative support (OAS) jobs, we show that when firms adopt new software at the job-title level they increase the skills required of job applicants. Furthermore, firms change the task content of such jobs, broadening them to include tasks associated with higher-skill office functions. We aggregate these patterns to the local labor-market level, instrumenting for local technology adoption with national measures. We find that a 1 standard deviation increase in OAS technology usage reduces employment in OAS occupations by about 1 percentage point and increases wages for college graduates in OAS jobs by over 3 percent. We find negative wage spillovers, with wages falling for both workers with and without a college degree. These results are consistent with technological adoption inducing a realignment in task assignment across occupations, leading office support occupations to become higher skill. We argue relative wage gains for OAS workers indicates that factor-augmenting features of OAS technological change dominate task-substituting features. In addition, while we find that total employment increases, these gains primarily accrue to college-educated women.

Upjohn Institute working paper: 19-310,  NBER Working Paper 29866

U of I News Bureau: “Paper: Economy benefits when secretarial jobs require more computer skills” (December 2019)

“Recruiting Intensity, Hires, and Vacancies: Evidence from Firm-Level Data” (with Russell Weinstein), 2021

eforsythe Working Papers

Abstract: We investigate employer recruiting behavior, using detailed firm-level data from a national survey of employers hiring recent college graduates. We show employers adjust recruiting effort, hiring standards, and compensation with the business cycle, beliefs about tightness, and their own hiring plans. We then show that firms expending greater recruiting effort hire more individuals per vacancy. The results suggest that when firms want to increase hires they adjust vacancies and recruiting intensity per vacancy. If true more broadly in the labor market, it may help explain the breakdown in the standard matching function during the Great Recession. For the firms in our sample, the difference in firm vacancy yields between 2011 and 2015 would have more than doubled if recruiting effort had been constant. Finally, we estimate that our measure of recruiting effort can explain 61% of the elasticity of the vacancy yield with respect to hires in our data.

Resting Working Papers

“Searching, Recalls, and Tightness: An Interim Report on the COVID Labor Market” (NBER WP 28083) with Lisa Kahn, Fabian Lange, and David Wiczer, 2020

eforsythe COVID-19, Resting Working Papers

Abstract: We report on the state of the labor market midway through the COVID recession, focusing particularly on measuring market tightness. As we show using a simple model, tightness is crucial for understanding the relative importance of labor supply or demand side factors in job creation. In tight markets, worker search effort has a relatively larger impact on job creation, while employer profitability looms larger in slack markets. We measure tightness combining job seeker information from the CPS and vacancy postings from Burning Glass Technologies. To parse the former, we develop a taxonomy of the non-employed that identifies job seekers and excludes the large number of those on temporary layoff who are waiting to be recalled. With this taxonomy, we find that effective tightness has declined about 50% since the onset of the epidemic to levels last seen in 2016, when labor markets generally appeared to be tight. Disaggregating market tightness, we find mismatch has surprisingly declined in the COVID recession. Further, while markets still appear to be tight relative to other recessionary periods, this could change quickly if the large group of those who lost their jobs but are not currently searching for a range of COVID-related reasons reenter the search market.